The Chinese Communist party does not have an enviable record when it comes to picking Hong Kong chief executives. Two of its first three chief executives stepped down prematurely but the territory’s fourth chief executive has proved to be the most disappointing for Beijing by far.

Carrie Lam’s championing of an unpopular extradition bill that would have allowed suspects to be sent to China for trial ignited sometimes violent pro-democracy protests in the Asian financial hub that after five months are still going strong.

The deep political crisis created by the unrest has led Beijing to begin drawing up plans to replace Ms Lam by as early as March, less than three years into her five-year term. As embarrassing as that would be for President Xi Jinping, people briefed on Communist party deliberations in Beijing say senior Chinese officials realise that Hong Kong needs a new beginning if it is to restore public confidence in the government.

The problem for Beijing is to find a successor who it trusts, who is also sufficiently popular in Hong Kong and who can somehow bridge the divide between Mr Xi’s authoritarian regime and protesters’ demands for genuinely democratic elections in the former UK colony of 7.4m people. That probably rules out anyone serving in Ms Lam’s deeply unpopular administration or the “executive council”, comprised of senior government officials and pro-Beijing establishment figures, that advises her.

“Hong Kong needs a clean break from Carrie in order to move on,” one of the people said. “But anyone associated with her administration is probably too tainted to do that.”

Mr Xi’s administration was caught off-guard by the intensity of the protests against the controversial extradition bill, said a senior Hong Kong official. “Beijing is thinking about all options,” he said. “If Carrie Lam steps down they need to find someone they can trust. It’s not easy. One thing I know for sure is that [before the protests erupted] they were expecting her to serve 10 years.”

One problem Beijing faces in replacing Ms Lam is that many potential successors it recognises as “patriots”, such as former chief secretary Henry Tang, are widely regarded in Hong Kong as being out of touch with ordinary residents. Mr Tang is respected in Beijing as the son of a wealthy industrialist who served as a senior adviser to the central government.

But in Hong Kong he is probably most famous for his multimillion-dollar wine collection and a scandal over an elaborate basement complex, built under his residence without proper construction approvals, which wrecked his bid to become chief executive in 2012.
Why China is preparing to ditch Hong Kong's chief executive Carrie Lam

Another person mentioned as a possible candidate, Norman Chan, former head of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, is more of a technocrat and is seen as less of a Beijing loyalist than Mr Tang, which could make him less appealing for Mr Xi.

According to people close to Ms Lam and Beijing, Chinese officials had no choice but to look for potential successors after a tape of her speaking about her predicament was leaked to Reuters and released in early September.

In the recording, Ms Lam came across as exhausted and defeated, called her handling of the extradition bill crisis “unforgivable” and strongly suggested that she tried to resign but Mr Xi would not let her.

Chinese officials were also enraged that Ms Lam revealed in the recording that Beijing’s threats to use all options necessary to quell the violence — including the possible deployment of the People’s Liberation Army and armed police — were essentially a bluff. “[Beijing] has absolutely no plan to send in the PLA,” she said in the recording.

The Chinese government has faced a similar dilemma in having to replace a failing Hong Kong chief executive — although in less dramatic circumstances. Tung Chee-hwa, its first appointee, resigned mid-second term in March 2005, ostensibly for health reasons.

Mr Tung’s administration had been crippled two years earlier by mass protests against a potentially draconian national security law that was later withdrawn.

Under Article 53 of the Basic Law, the territory’s mini constitution, when a chief executive resigns, he or she is replaced in an acting capacity by the territory’s second-highest official, the chief secretary, with an “election” for the new chief executive to be held within six months. Hong Kong’s chief executives are formally chosen by a 1,200-member “election committee” largely made up of pro-Beijing figures.

In 2005, the then chief secretary Donald Tsang was formally installed as Hong Kong’s second chief executive four months after Mr Tung stepped down. He served out the remaining two years of Mr Tung’s term and was then reappointed for a second and final five-year term of his own.

If Ms Lam was to resign this year or early next year, Beijing could speed up the process, allowing her successor to be in place by March, when China’s parliament holds its annual session.

But unlike Mr Tsang, people briefed on Beijing’s plans said Ms Lam’s successor would probably be an “interim” figure who would serve out her remaining two years in office but does not then get a second five-year term.

“Beijing has a host of criteria for the next chief executive including acceptability by the people of Hong Kong,” said Willy Lam, a Chinese politics expert at Chinese University of Hong Kong. “But Beijing’s top priority will be obedience and a willingness to toe its line without asking questions.”