With six weeks to go before Hong Kong’s next chief executive is chosen, the city’s political circles are buzzing with talk of the “Macau model” – an uncontested election with only one candidate blessed by Beijing emerging as the clear winner.

Pro-establishment heavyweights said they believed the “one-man show” which had prevailed in Macau for 17 years could work in Hong Kong too, but some observers warned that it could weaken the legitimacy of the city’s new administration and go against its deep-rooted political culture of open debate.

Former Legislative Council president Jasper Tsang Yok-sing and Lau Siu-kai, vice-president of a semi-official think tank, were among pro-establishment heavyweights who said the Macau way could prevent infighting within their camp seen in recent leadership races.

The March 27 election is the first for the city’s leader since Beijing overhauled Hong Kong’s electoral system last year to ensure that only “patriots” are in charge, and the winner will be picked by 1,463 members of the powerful Election Committee.

A two-week nomination period begins on February 20, with aspirants subject to a stringent national security vetting process led by Chief Secretary John Lee Ka-chiu. To enter the race, they must also secure no fewer than 188 nominations from Election Committee members, with at least 15 from each of its five sectors.

With time running out, the big question is whether Beijing will give its blessings for a contest as in previous years or decide it is time Hong Kong went the Macau way.

The Post has reported sources saying Beijing preferred a compressed campaign to minimise the kind of heated competition seen within the pro-establishment ranks in the 2017 and 2012 chief executive elections.

Macau, like Hong Kong, is governed under the “one country, two systems” principle.

Former colonies Hong Kong and Macau are both special administrative regions that were returned to China by Britain and Portugal in 1997 and 1999, respectively.

Both are governed under the “one country, two systems” principle with similar election mechanisms, but each has taken a different route to picking chief executives.

Hong Kong saw walkovers only when the first postcolonial leader Tung Chee-hwa sought re-election in 2002, and when his chief secretary Donald Tsang Yam-kuen won a snap election in 2005.

Donald Tsang won a snap election in 2015.

The three most recent elections saw intense campaigning and competition, which raised political temperatures and once caused a serious rift within the pro-establishment camp.

The experience of neighbouring Macau was the other way round. The 1999 election, the first after the gambling hub returned to Chinese rule, was its only contested race.

All four subsequent elections went uncontested, with the sole candidates endorsed overwhelmingly by its Election Committee. Current leader Ho Iat-seng won 392 votes from the 400-strong committee in 2019.

Beijing has long held up Macau for its stability and governance. Chinese President Xi Jinping attended the swearing-in ceremony for Ho and his cabinet in 2019 and praised Macau for implementing the one country, two systems principle successfully. At the time, Hong Kong had been rocked by six months of often-violent anti-government protests.

President Xi Jinping attended the swearing-in ceremony for Macau’s leader Ho Iat-seng and his cabinet in 2019.

With 40 days before Hong Kong’s next leader is chosen, serious aspirants have yet to step forward.

Current leader Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor has avoided any talk of a possible bid for re-election. Names of other potential contenders have been tossed up, with no confirmation.

Only Checkley Sin Kwok-lam, 64, a political neophyte best known for producing kung fu films, has announced his intention to run, although few expect him to secure sufficient support from the Election Committee to enter the race.

Mathew Wong Yee-hang, assistant professor of Education University’s department of social science who has compared the elite dynamics in Hong Kong and Macau, said an uncontested race was not necessarily a bad thing for Hong Kong, given the political uncertainty in recent years.

“Instead of having a contest between pro-establishment candidates, a ‘one-man show’ might clearly demonstrate which candidate has Beijing’s support, and society can rally around him or her, providing some certainty going forward,” he said.

However, considering the complexity of Hong Kong’s society, he added that any lone candidate should work out a campaign to reach out to various sectors.

In both cities, past elections have been criticised by the opposition for being “small-circle” or “sham” polls as residents do not get to vote for their leader directly.

Former pro-democracy lawmaker Au Kam-san said there was a downside to Macau’s walkover elections, in that issues related to democratisation and collusion between business and government were kept off the agenda during campaigns.

Public opinion also did not matter in walkover elections, as there were no debates between candidates and no phone-in talk shows during the campaign period.

Hong Kong’s biggest broadcaster, TVB, is planning a forum involving candidates for the election, but a spokesman said nothing had been confirmed yet.

Associate Professor Eilo Yu Wing-yat, a political analyst at the University of Macau, did not think the model of the gambling enclave could be replicated easily.

He said the government’s years of efforts to co-opt Macanese elites had resulted in a relatively unified pro-Beijing camp that was able to manage or win over public opinion.

Yu doubted that Hong Kong would achieve unity within its pro-establishment camp merely by delaying the start of the election process or having only one candidate.

Aside from a long-existing divide within Hong Kong’s pro-Beijing bloc, Hongkongers also had a distinct political culture, he added.

Hong Kong’s pro-establishment camp has been known to be fractious, sometimes even openly breaking ranks, such as during the acrimonious battle in 2012 between Leung Chun-ying and front-runner Henry Tang Ying-yen.

“In Macau, the government’s performance is often seen as the key to legitimacy of the leadership. But for Hongkongers, procedural justice has a direct influence on the government’s legitimacy,” Yu said.

“So Beijing has to think whether the emergence of a last-minute strongman will give a boost or blow to the next administration’s legitimacy.”