The most urgent thing Hongkongers need right now is a boost to their morale and confidence. That will only come when they feel the authorities have a clear strategy for dealing with the pandemic and a coherent, logical plan to implement it.

They want to see a road back to normality. All they can see at the moment is an administration imitating a bunch of headless chickens.

Earlier this month, I posted on Facebook about three reports which had appeared in the local media in the space of 24 hours: “There will not be a lockdown”, “There might be a lockdown” and “Lockdown starts March 17”. The source of all three was different government officials either directly on the record or by way of a background briefing.

How are citizens supposed to take comfort from this and the assurance there is no need to panic? They did not take comfort, of course, and duly stripped supermarket shelves.

The collapse in public morale was palpable when the number of new infections rose to over 40,000 a day more than two years after the pandemic began. This was all for nothing, friends said to me, referring to the sacrifices of the past two years. It is easy to understand the long faces.

We could forgive the administration the privations of the first year of the pandemic. It was new, nobody had a complete answer and, by enforcing strict social distancing, Hong Kong had a good record in terms of the number of infections and related deaths.

But we squandered the benefits of vaccination by failing to drive take-up rates. The decision in the 2021 budget to provide HK$5,000 (US$640) consumption vouchers unconditionally was a missed opportunity. Incredibly, we have made the same mistake in the 2022 budget and even doubled the stake.

The long delay in implementing vaccine passes was another. So here we are, back where we started, with hundreds more dead and thousands more infected.

What should our priority be in the next few weeks? It must be to reduce the number of deaths, starting with protecting the most vulnerable. We know who they are and where many of them live – they are elderly, unvaccinated residents of care homes.

The first job must be to vaccinate them. Talk of mass testing with or without different degrees of lockdown can wait until that is completed. We might have to do those other things later, but in the meantime they will only suck up resources that can be better used elsewhere.

With the help of doctors and nurses from the private sector, the government is starting to reach out to visit every care home and provide vaccinations. Given that some occupants are not mentally competent to decide such things for themselves, we should consider how to use emergency health regulations to make getting vaccinated the default option unless a doctor certifies exemptions on medical grounds.

Once our overall vaccination rate exceeds 90 per cent, we can consider other steps. The initial idea of three rounds of compulsory testing might no longer be practicable. There is no prospect of sufficient facilities being available to take in all concerned, let alone their close contacts. Hospital beds must be reserved for the most seriously ill.

Given Beijing’s close interest in tackling the problem, and deployment of so many senior officials to help, it is important that a comprehensive plan of action is devised with the help and endorsement of mainland experts. It then needs to be communicated clearly by public press conference. It must be seen to be fair, treating everyone equally irrespective of status and according to clear criteria.

Any informal assurances apparently given to some senior business figures that they will receive special treatment should be addressed. The option of self-quarantine at home, if appropriate, must be open to all.

What should the road ahead look like? It must take aim at three things: quarantine, social distancing and mask mandates. Given that the incubation period of the Omicron variant is three to five days, there is a strong case for the quarantine period to be reduced from 14 to seven days for arrivals, new local infections and close contacts.

My son flew in last week from Beijing under the “Return2hk” scheme: one negative test before boarding, one more on landing and straight home with no quarantine. If such a sensible scheme can be allowed for visitors from the mainland, why can it not be extended to those from Singapore and other places with reliable medical certificates?

Some social distancing requirements can be loosened. We have vaccine passports, so let’s use them. Controls on entry to hairdressers were relaxed last week, but there is no consistency or explanation. There should be a similar relaxation for beauty parlours, gyms, swimming pools and so on. Dining in after 6pm must also return before the catering industry goes into terminal decline.

Finally, there is the compulsory wearing of masks. Many Hongkongers have shown no difficulty in wearing masks during the pandemic, but those who engage in vigorous exercise find them uncomfortable. Some wearers can suffer panic attacks if airways are blocked. We should all be doing our best to put mask days behind us.

The faster we make progress in these aspects, the more Hong Kong will feel like home again and less like a prison we want to escape.