Hong Kong News

Nonpartisan, Noncommercial, unconstrained.
Tuesday, Dec 10, 2024

‘Happy Hong Kong’ should feel lucky to be spared many global stresses

‘Happy Hong Kong’ should feel lucky to be spared many global stresses

The most striking feature of the latest Hong Kong budget is the simplicity of the challenges our economy faces and our good fortune in being unburdened by almost any of the budgetary challenges facing so many economies worldwide.

If there is a single striking feature of Finance Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po’s budget released this week, it is not hand-wringing over the merits of consumption vouchers, whether stamp duty changes will make it easier to buy a house or even whether the budget will create a “Happy Hong Kong”.

Rather, it is the extraordinary simplicity of the challenges our economy faces and our good fortune in being unburdened by almost any of the extraordinary budgetary challenges facing so many economies worldwide.

I do not intend to make light of the hardship created by the Covid-19 pandemic, though I really wish Chan would be more transparent in disaggregating the extraordinary costs linked with our quarantine infrastructure, vaccines and testing regimes.

I also do not wish to downplay the catastrophic collapse of tourism, conventions, exhibitions and the hospitality industry resulting from the hermetic sealing off of our economy from the rest of the world.

Neither do I make light of the time it is likely to take to rebuild businesses, recover livelihoods and return to the levels of economic activity we took for granted back in 2018.

There is some hand-wringing about the unusual pain of a HK$139.8 billion (US$17.8 billion) budget deficit for 2022-23 and of a fall in the city’s fiscal reserves to HK$817.3 billion, but this burden is light and likely to be transitory on a five-year time frame compared with almost any other economy in the world.

We have virtually no government debt and therefore none of the debt service costs that are weighing on so many governments worldwide. Note that Japan’s debt amounts to 263 per cent of GDP, the United States to 120 per cent and France to 113 per cent.

This has perhaps been tolerable during the past decade of quantitative easing and zero interest rates, but the interest- rate increases of the past year have the potential to create massive budgetary crises for many governments. US debt service cost on its US$31 trillion national debt rose in the final quarter of last year to US$213 billion – an annualised cost to the economy of around US$850 billion.

Inflation in Hong Kong is a tolerable 1.7 per cent. That is light years from the nearly double-digit levels in many Western countries that are generating household hardship and a wave of trade union demands for wage increases.

There is pressure on Chan to strengthen healthcare in our rapidly ageing society, in particular community-based primary healthcare. However, this is hardly comparable with the systemic health service crises haunting countries such as the UK.

At present, Chan seems sublimely aloof from the likely global costs of tackling climate change and getting to “net zero” carbon emissions, despite the fact the recent UN climate change conference in Egypt and others have suggested this will cost around US$125 trillion between now and 2050. It seems a few electric taxis and hydrogen-fuelled buses are the extent of our concern so far.

Neither have we suffered any of the debates over providing subsidies for household oil and gas supplies to insulate British or German households from shivering through the European winter.

Perhaps most fortunately, we are wholly unburdened by any defence spending budget. This is instead borne on our behalf by Beijing, where national spending on defence amounted to around US$230 billion in 2022 and took up around 5 per cent of government spending.

But the true scale of the defence spending challenge is being felt by the US and its European Nato allies – and of course Russia – as the war in Ukraine enters its second year. The likelihood of steeply rising demands for more military spending is likely sending shivers down the spine of finance ministers across Europe and the US, where the government running up against its budget spending ceiling.

If a team from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute is right, it seems the defence industrial base in the US is laying the ground for “momentous hikes in military spending”, with Canada, the US, Australia and the 29 European Union members pledging US$209 billion new defence funding since the Russian invasion of Ukraine last February. Josep Borrell, the EU’s top foreign policy official, has acknowledged that “investments will be needed to replenish the depleted stock of military equipment [in Europe].”

Artist Sabir Mamedov holds a recently finished rifle at the workshop of the Civil Resistance and Assistance Foundation, an organisation that paints camouflage on vehicles, weapons and equipment for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, on the outskirts of Kyiv on February 10.


US defence industry lobbyists have in recent months gone into overdrive as supplies of US munitions have made their way to Kyiv. They have used what is seen as a Chinese threat to invade Taiwan to call for “healthy, resilient, diverse and secure supply chains” to ensure sustained military capabilities in the Pacific.

Given the massive lobbying power of the defence industrial base in the US, significant additional spending will be demanded, putting a squeeze on all of US President Joe Biden’s other budget priorities. What this will mean for those calling for more spending to staunch climate change or to bolster global pandemic preparedness can only be guessed, but it cannot be good.

Set against these grave global challenges being addressed by many other finance ministers across the world, Chan’s “Happy Hong Kong” budget seems somewhat disengaged. As our economy re-engages with the outside world and begins the recovery process from the pandemic trauma, perhaps we are lucky in the menu of challenges we face.

Newsletter

Related Articles

Hong Kong News
0:00
0:00
Close
It's always the people with the dirty hands pointing their fingers
Paper straws found to contain long-lasting and potentially toxic chemicals - study
FTX's Bankman-Fried headed for jail after judge revokes bail
Blackrock gets half a trillion dollar deal to rebuild Ukraine
Steve Jobs' Son Launches Venture Capital Firm With $200 Million For Cancer Treatments
Google reshuffles Assistant unit, lays off some staffers, to 'supercharge' products with A.I.
End of Viagra? FDA approved a gel against erectile dysfunction
UK sanctions Russians judges over dual British national Kara-Murza's trial
US restricts visa-free travel for Hungarian passport holders because of security concerns
America's First New Nuclear Reactor in Nearly Seven Years Begins Operations
Southeast Asia moves closer to economic unity with new regional payments system
Political leader from South Africa, Julius Malema, led violent racist chants at a massive rally on Saturday
Today Hunter Biden’s best friend and business associate, Devon Archer, testified that Joe Biden met in Georgetown with Russian Moscow Mayor's Wife Yelena Baturina who later paid Hunter Biden $3.5 million in so called “consulting fees”
'I am not your servant': IndiGo crew member, passenger get into row over airline meal
Singapore Carries Out First Execution of a Woman in Two Decades Amid Capital Punishment Debate
Spanish Citizenship Granted to Iranian chess player who removed hijab
US Senate Republican Mitch McConnell freezes up, leaves press conference
Speaker McCarthy says the United States House of Representatives is getting ready to impeach Joe Biden.
San Francisco car crash
This camera man is a genius
3D ad in front of Burj Khalifa
Next level gaming
BMW driver…
Google testing journalism AI. We are doing it already 2 years, and without Google biased propoganda and manipulated censorship
Unlike illegal imigrants coming by boats - US Citizens Will Need Visa To Travel To Europe in 2024
Musk announces Twitter name and logo change to X.com
The politician and the journalist lost control and started fighting on live broadcast.
The future of sports
Unveiling the Black Hole: The Mysterious Fate of EU's Aid to Ukraine
Farewell to a Music Titan: Tony Bennett, Renowned Jazz and Pop Vocalist, Passes Away at 96
Alarming Behavior Among Florida's Sharks Raises Concerns Over Possible Cocaine Exposure
Transgender Exclusion in Miss Italy Stirs Controversy Amidst Changing Global Beauty Pageant Landscape
Joe Biden admitted, in his own words, that he delivered what he promised in exchange for the $10 million bribe he received from the Ukraine Oil Company.
TikTok Takes On Spotify And Apple, Launches Own Music Service
Global Trend: Using Anti-Fake News Laws as Censorship Tools - A Deep Dive into Tunisia's Scenario
Arresting Putin During South African Visit Would Equate to War Declaration, Asserts President Ramaphosa
Hacktivist Collective Anonymous Launches 'Project Disclosure' to Unearth Information on UFOs and ETIs
Typo sends millions of US military emails to Russian ally Mali
Server Arrested For Theft After Refusing To Pay A Table's $100 Restaurant Bill When They Dined & Dashed
The Changing Face of Europe: How Mass Migration is Reshaping the Political Landscape
China Urges EU to Clarify Strategic Partnership Amid Trade Tensions
The Last Pour: Anchor Brewing, America's Pioneer Craft Brewer, Closes After 127 Years
Democracy not: EU's Digital Commissioner Considers Shutting Down Social Media Platforms Amid Social Unrest
Sarah Silverman and Renowned Authors Lodge Copyright Infringement Case Against OpenAI and Meta
Why Do Tech Executives Support Kennedy Jr.?
The New York Times Announces Closure of its Sports Section in Favor of The Athletic
BBC Anchor Huw Edwards Hospitalized Amid Child Sex Abuse Allegations, Family Confirms
Florida Attorney General requests Meta CEO's testimony on company's platforms' alleged facilitation of illicit activities
The Distorted Mirror of actual approval ratings: Examining the True Threat to Democracy Beyond the Persona of Putin
40,000 child slaves in Congo are forced to work in cobalt mines so we can drive electric cars.
×