Hong Kong News

Nonpartisan, Noncommercial, unconstrained.
Friday, Mar 29, 2024

China's population could halve within next 45 years, new study warns

China's population could halve within next 45 years, new study warns

China's population decline may be much faster than expected, with the number of people in the country halving within the next 45 years, a new study has warned.
The projection was based on the official birth rate of 1.3 children per woman last year - well below the figure of 2 needed to keep the number stable - and forecast a much more dramatic decline than previous estimates.

China's current population is over 1.4 billion and in 2019 the United Nations projected that China would still have around 1.3 billion people by 2065.

Another estimate published in The Lancet by researchers with the University of Washington last year suggested the Chinese population would halve by 2100.

But the new research, from Jiang Quanbao and colleagues with the institute for population and development studies at Xian Jiaotong University, warned that the country's population decline may have been severely underestimated.

The UN's projection, for instance, was based on the assumption that China's fertility rate would remain at above 1.7 children per woman. China had 12 million newborns last year, 25% lower than the UN's estimate.

The Chinese authorities "need to pay close attention to the potential negative inertia of population growth and make a plan with countermeasures in advance," wrote Jiang in the study published in the Journal of Xian University of Finance and Economics.

The new birth rate, though unexpectedly low, was based on data from the latest census, which is believed to be the most accurate yet because it was collected entirely with the aid of digital devices for the first time and cross-checked with other government data sets.

Though the census findings have only partially been disclosed to the public, the limited information already shed a new light on changes and future development trends in the Chinese population, according to the researchers.

The pandemic may have had an impact on childbirth last year - but Jiang and his colleagues said the chances that the birth rate would rebound were low. They said it was more likely that the total population would soon start a rapid decline due to the drop in the number of women of child-bearing age.

"If the fertility rate drops to 1, in 29 years the population in our country will fall by half," they said.

According to the new census data, children make up about 17% of the population, while the proportion of over-60s rose to over 18%.

The researchers said it was the first time that China had more seniors than young people.

"People dare not to have children due to increasing economic pressure," they wrote. "There are also severe shortages in supporting services for childbearing and care."

While the government has loosened its population policy earlier this year, allowing all families to have three children, numerous studies have pointed out that economic factors such as high property prices are a major force driving down the birth rate.

In some countries such as the United States, rising property prices can help raise the birth rate because they make people wealthier, but in China the opposite applies.

A study published this month by the Chinese Academy of Sciences found that in the Yangtze River Delta, one of the most developed regions in the country, rapidly increasing housing prices have caused the area to have one of the lowest birth rates in the country.

Another study in August suggested that in China, each 1,000 yuan (5,200 baht) per square metre increase in property prices reduces the likelihood of having one child by 2%, and that of having two children by 5%.

The Chinese government has recently launched a series of campaigns to control property prices, reduce the cost of education and increase the number of kindergartens, but the study said further measures are needed.

Chen Gong, director of the Peking University Institute of Population Research, forecast in a recent article on the website of the National Bureau of Statistics that the Chinese population would start to decline from 2025.

He said that while the shrinking, ageing population would increase the burden on the social welfare system there was some good news.

For example, the number of citizen with higher education qualifications had nearly doubled over the past decade and now stood at 15% of population - something that Chen said could boost the country's development.

"It is expected that the quality of the Chinese population will increase rapidly and become a driving force for high quality economic development," Chen said. "It will also reduce pressure on natural resources and the environment."
Newsletter

Related Articles

Hong Kong News
0:00
0:00
Close
It's always the people with the dirty hands pointing their fingers
Paper straws found to contain long-lasting and potentially toxic chemicals - study
FTX's Bankman-Fried headed for jail after judge revokes bail
Blackrock gets half a trillion dollar deal to rebuild Ukraine
Steve Jobs' Son Launches Venture Capital Firm With $200 Million For Cancer Treatments
Google reshuffles Assistant unit, lays off some staffers, to 'supercharge' products with A.I.
End of Viagra? FDA approved a gel against erectile dysfunction
UK sanctions Russians judges over dual British national Kara-Murza's trial
US restricts visa-free travel for Hungarian passport holders because of security concerns
America's First New Nuclear Reactor in Nearly Seven Years Begins Operations
Southeast Asia moves closer to economic unity with new regional payments system
Political leader from South Africa, Julius Malema, led violent racist chants at a massive rally on Saturday
Today Hunter Biden’s best friend and business associate, Devon Archer, testified that Joe Biden met in Georgetown with Russian Moscow Mayor's Wife Yelena Baturina who later paid Hunter Biden $3.5 million in so called “consulting fees”
'I am not your servant': IndiGo crew member, passenger get into row over airline meal
Singapore Carries Out First Execution of a Woman in Two Decades Amid Capital Punishment Debate
Spanish Citizenship Granted to Iranian chess player who removed hijab
US Senate Republican Mitch McConnell freezes up, leaves press conference
Speaker McCarthy says the United States House of Representatives is getting ready to impeach Joe Biden.
San Francisco car crash
This camera man is a genius
3D ad in front of Burj Khalifa
Next level gaming
BMW driver…
Google testing journalism AI. We are doing it already 2 years, and without Google biased propoganda and manipulated censorship
Unlike illegal imigrants coming by boats - US Citizens Will Need Visa To Travel To Europe in 2024
Musk announces Twitter name and logo change to X.com
The politician and the journalist lost control and started fighting on live broadcast.
The future of sports
Unveiling the Black Hole: The Mysterious Fate of EU's Aid to Ukraine
Farewell to a Music Titan: Tony Bennett, Renowned Jazz and Pop Vocalist, Passes Away at 96
Alarming Behavior Among Florida's Sharks Raises Concerns Over Possible Cocaine Exposure
Transgender Exclusion in Miss Italy Stirs Controversy Amidst Changing Global Beauty Pageant Landscape
Joe Biden admitted, in his own words, that he delivered what he promised in exchange for the $10 million bribe he received from the Ukraine Oil Company.
TikTok Takes On Spotify And Apple, Launches Own Music Service
Global Trend: Using Anti-Fake News Laws as Censorship Tools - A Deep Dive into Tunisia's Scenario
Arresting Putin During South African Visit Would Equate to War Declaration, Asserts President Ramaphosa
Hacktivist Collective Anonymous Launches 'Project Disclosure' to Unearth Information on UFOs and ETIs
Typo sends millions of US military emails to Russian ally Mali
Server Arrested For Theft After Refusing To Pay A Table's $100 Restaurant Bill When They Dined & Dashed
The Changing Face of Europe: How Mass Migration is Reshaping the Political Landscape
China Urges EU to Clarify Strategic Partnership Amid Trade Tensions
The Last Pour: Anchor Brewing, America's Pioneer Craft Brewer, Closes After 127 Years
Democracy not: EU's Digital Commissioner Considers Shutting Down Social Media Platforms Amid Social Unrest
Sarah Silverman and Renowned Authors Lodge Copyright Infringement Case Against OpenAI and Meta
Why Do Tech Executives Support Kennedy Jr.?
The New York Times Announces Closure of its Sports Section in Favor of The Athletic
BBC Anchor Huw Edwards Hospitalized Amid Child Sex Abuse Allegations, Family Confirms
Florida Attorney General requests Meta CEO's testimony on company's platforms' alleged facilitation of illicit activities
The Distorted Mirror of actual approval ratings: Examining the True Threat to Democracy Beyond the Persona of Putin
40,000 child slaves in Congo are forced to work in cobalt mines so we can drive electric cars.
×