Hong Kong News

Nonpartisan, Noncommercial, unconstrained.
Friday, Jun 02, 2023

China GDP growth revised up by Morgan Stanley, but IMF's fears over COVID-19 weigh heavy 

China GDP growth revised up by Morgan Stanley, but IMF's fears over COVID-19 weigh heavy 

China’s decision to relax its COVID-19 containment policies has prompted analysts at Morgan Stanley to revise up its 2023 gross domestic product forecast for the Asian powerhouse. 
The bank had previously estimated the country’s output would increase by 5 percent next year, but now anticipates 5.4 percent growth, according to a note. 

The global energy market is watching China's recovering mobility closely. Demand in the world's top oil buyer is expected to contract for the first time in two decades this year due to widespread lockdowns. 

"Given the faster pace of reopening, we now expect mobility to normalize — reaching the June-July 2022 levels — by end-March 2023 versus our prior expectation of May-June," Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a note on Wednesday. 

However, it is anticipated that the first quarter of 2023 could be tough for the Chinese economy, with Morgan Stanley analysts adding: “Clearly the risk to short-term growth is to the downside should Omicron spread in China.” 

Optimism over China’s economic growth is not shared by all, with International Monetary Fund chief Kristalina Georgieva warning that a lower growth forecast is “very likely” for this year and next. 

Speaking to AFP news agency, Georgieva said while China’s zero-COVID-19 policy has battered its economy, “the easing of restrictions is going to create some difficulties over the next months.” 

This is because a spike in infections will be inevitable, with more people temporarily unable to participate in the labor force. 

“But it is likely that as China overcomes this in the second half of the year, there could be some improvement in growth prospects,” she said. 

The zero-COVID-19 policy, characterized by snap lockdowns, international travel restrictions and mass testing, took a heavy toll on consumers and businesses, with demonstrations against the measures eventually erupting in major Chinese cities. 

The IMF earlier warned that tough virus restrictions have been especially hard on China’s residents. 

Chinese officials said Monday that COVID-19 cases are surging in Beijing, with a sharp spike in people visiting hospitals across the capital city. Rising infections in smaller cities were also discussed on social media. 

The fund cut its growth projection for China in October to 3.2 percent this year — the lowest in decades — while expecting growth to rise to 4.4 percent next year. 

Georgieva said it is “very likely, we will be downgrading our growth projections for China, both for 2022 and for 2023.”  

Global economic leaders last week hailed China’s move away from its hard-line virus strategy, with hopes that relaxation would also help to shore up a world economy struggling with the fallout from the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 

With 2023 set to be a “very difficult year” as well, Georgieva reiterated that the likelihood of further downgrades in IMF growth projections will be “high.” 

Apart from challenges in China, the US and EU are also expected to slow simultaneously, with projections for half of the EU to be in recession next year, she said. 

While the Washington-based fund earlier said there was a one-in-four chance global growth would fall below two percent next year, Georgieva added Tuesday that this probability has gone up. 
AI Disclaimer: An advanced artificial intelligence (AI) system generated the content of this page on its own. This innovative technology conducts extensive research from a variety of reliable sources, performs rigorous fact-checking and verification, cleans up and balances biased or manipulated content, and presents a minimal factual summary that is just enough yet essential for you to function as an informed and educated citizen. Please keep in mind, however, that this system is an evolving technology, and as a result, the article may contain accidental inaccuracies or errors. We urge you to help us improve our site by reporting any inaccuracies you find using the "Contact Us" link at the bottom of this page. Your helpful feedback helps us improve our system and deliver more precise content. When you find an article of interest here, please look for the full and extensive coverage of this topic in traditional news sources, as they are written by professional journalists that we try to support, not replace. We appreciate your understanding and assistance.
Newsletter

Related Articles

Hong Kong News
Close
0:00
0:00
Joe Biden falls at the Air Force Graduation
America's Got Talent…
Elon Musk has been showered with praise by the Chinese public during his trip to China
Nvidia Joins Tech Giants as First Chipmaker to Reach $1 Trillion Valuation
Drone Attack on Moscow's Wealthiest Neighborhoods Suspected to be Launched by Ukraine
Elon Musk Meets Chinese Finance Minister in Beijing
AI ‘extinction’ should be same priority as nuclear war – experts
Chinese fighter jet buzzes U.S. Air Force spy plane over South China Sea
Prominent Hacker Forum RaidForums Suffers Substantial Data Breach
Nvidia CEO Huang says firms, individuals without AI expertise will be left behind
WPP Revolutionizes Advertising with NVIDIA's AI Powerhouse
Two US Employees Fired For Chasing Robbers Out Of Store As They Broke ''Company Policy''
Pfizer, the EU, and disappearing ink - Smoke, Mirrors, and the Billion-Dose Pfizer Vaccine Deal: EU's 'Open Secret
The Sussexes' Royal Rebound: Could Harry and Meghan Markle Return to the UK?
A provocative study suggests: Left-Wing Extremism and its Unsettling Connection to Psychopathy and Narcissism
Neuralink Receives FDA Approval for First-in-Human Clinical Study
Ukrainian Intelligence Official Admits to Assassination Attempts on Putin
WATCH THIS: democracy in Russia is so bad!
Ed Davey: It is possible for a woman to have a penis
Bernard Arnault Loses $11.2 Billion in One Day as Investors Fear Slowdown in US Growth Will Reduce Demand for Luxury Products
Russian’s Wagner Group leader: “I am not a chef, I am a butcher. Russia is in danger of a revolution like in 1917.”
TikTok Sues Montana Over Law Banning the App
Ron DeSantis Jumps Into 2024 Presidential Race, Setting Up Showdown With Trump
Steve Jobs introducing Apple's iPhone, exactly 16 years ago.
Banking Behemoth vs Ex-Boss: The PMorgan-Epstein Entanglement
China overtakes Japan as world's top car exporter
Talks between US House Republicans and President Biden's Democratic administration on raising the federal government's $31.4tn debt ceiling have paused
Biden Administration Eyeing High-Profile Visits to China: The Biden Administration is heating things up by looking into setting up a series of top-level visits to Beijing by top officials in the coming months
New evidence in special counsel probe may undercut Trump’s claim documents he took were automatically declassified
A French court of appeals confirmed former President Nicolas Sarkozy's three-year jail term for corruption and influence peddling
Debt Ceiling Crises Have Unleashed Political Chaos
Weibao Wang, a former software engineer at Apple, was charged with stealing trade secrets related to autonomous systems, including self-driving cars
Mobile phone giant Vodafone to cut 11,000 jobs globally over three years as new boss says its performance not good enough
Elon Musk compares George Soros to Magneto, the supervillain from the Marvel Comics series.
Warren Buffett Sells TSMC Shares Over Concerns About Taiwan's Stability
New Study Finds That Secondary Bacterial Pneumonia Is a Major Cause of Death in COVID-19 Patients Who Require Ventilator Assistance
The official tapes of Trump's deposition in the E. Jean Carroll battery (rape) and defamation case have been released.
King Charles III being crowned.
Newly released video of Donald Trump’s rape trial deposition:
Video: Ukraine MP Punches Russian Representative At Global Meet
El Paso mayor has declared a state of emergency
Russia accused Ukraine of attacking the Kremlin with drones in an attempt to kill Putin
Dutch court orders man who fathered 550 kids to stop donating sperm
Kim Kardashian Lookalike Christina Ashten Dies Of Cardiac Arrest, Hours After Plastic Surgery
Samsung has banned employees from using generative AI services such as ChatGPT
'Godfather Of AI' Geoffrey Hinton Quits Google To Warn Of The Tech's Dangers
A Real woman
Vermont Man Charged with Stalking After Secretly Tracking Woman with Apple AirTag
Elon Musk Statements About Tesla Autopilot Could Be 'Deepfakes,' Lawyers Claim. Judge Evette Pennypacker Does Not Understand How Far and Advanced This Technology Became
Ukraine More Prepared for Counterattack as Reinforcements Arrive
×